We get an early AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in the Meadowlands to kick off week three on TNF. The underlying narrative for this game is the UNDER. Since 2010, totals of 40 or lower on TNF are 19-7 to the under, which is an absurd 73% hit rate. The weather is also trending to favour an under in New Jersey on Thursday night. There's a 20% chance of rain with gusts of wind up to 11 mph. While that isn't substantial, we're looking at every possible angle to give us an edge and line your pockets. Not only does TNF hit the under at a notoriously high rate, but these teams are prime candidates for under. Both teams were in the top nine in defensive DVOA last season and in the bottom four on offence. The offence improved, but they play slowly, with the fifth fewest plays run this season. The Patriots, meanwhile, are competing by playing tough defence, limiting mistakes and shortening the game by running the football well and controlling the clock. The problem is despite these factors the model is only giving the under a 52.5% edge. We locked in the under at 40.5, and it's moved down to 38 on some books, so act fast. Our betting model also loves a player prop to hit at an absurd 74.8% rate. Check out the bets right here. https://www.sportstree.ca/picks